Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSMOB

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST THIS EVENING**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Choctaw

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa
Coastal
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baldwin Inland, Conecuh,
Covington, Escambia, Escambia Inland, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa
Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Crenshaw, George, Greene, Monroe, Washington, and Wilcox
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Perry, Stone, and Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 210 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 190 miles
south of Pensacola FL
- 27.7N 87.3W
- Storm Intensity 120 mph
- Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Isaias is moving towards the north-northeast near 16
mph toward the north central Gulf Coast. Isaias is expected to still be
a damaging hurricane when it makes landfall this evening. It is
important not to focus just on the center as the wind field will
expand by landfall, resulting in the potential for significant wind
impacts and a life threatening storm surge along and to the east of
where the hurricane makes landfall. In addition, strong wind gusts are
expected to develop west of the center across extreme southwest
Alabama this afternoon into the early evening hours, with gusts in
excess of 80 mph possible.

Peak storm surge inundation of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground
is possible along the coast of the western Florida panhandle.
Evacuation orders have been issued by some coastal counties and you
should check with your local emergency management agency for the
latest information.

Those in the hurricane warning need to prepare for damaging hurricane
force winds of 74 to 110 mph, potentially stronger, especially across
coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The strongest winds
will occur near and just to the east of the center. Potential impacts
from these winds include numerous downed trees and power lines,
significant power outages, and some roof damage. Tropical storm force
winds will spread well inland with hurricane force gusts likely into
south central Alabama as the center of Isaias quickly moves north.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across southwest
ALabama, south central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Localized amounts of 10 to 12 inches are possible in bands across the
Florida Panhandle and near the center track of the storm. Areas of
flooding are likely if the higher amounts are realized, with
considerable impacts possible. In addition, there is an increasing
risk for tornadoes as early as this afternoon and into tonight east of
where the central Isaias tracks. The greatest threat will be across
the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle
and Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across western Florida Panhandle, portions of southwestern
Alabama and portions of south central Alabama. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across inland southeast Mississippi, far inland
southwest Alabama, and south central Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across all of southwest and south central Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across interior southeast Mississippi.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across northwest Florida and south central Alabama. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southwest Alabama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Evacuation orders have been issued across some coastal counties.
Follow the advice of local officials and check with local emergency
management for the latest information.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or mobilecountyema.gov
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or myescambia.com/beready
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or myokaloosa.com/emergency-management
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.